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January 2026 is shaping up to be one of the busiest months at the box office, with Hollywood already rolling out a stacked lineup of releases, ranging from Gerard Butler’s Greenland 2: Migration, zombie sequel 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, and survival-horror thriller Primate to upcoming titles like Sam Raimi’s Send Help. And the competition doesn’t stop there.
Heavyweights from 2025, such as Avatar: Fire and Ash, Zootopia 2, and The Housemaid, are still holding strong in theaters, making the theatrical battlefield even tougher for new arrivals. Now, Chris Pratt’s sci-fi thriller Mercy is gearing up for release on January 23, 2026, raising the big question: Can it outperform Avatar: Fire and Ash at the Jan 23-25 weekend box office in North America? Let’s break down the numbers.
Mercy vs. Avatar: Fire and Ash – Domestic Weekend Earnings (Jan 23-25) Comparison
According to a report by Variety, Chris Pratt’s Mercy is projected to earn $10 million to $13 million during the January 23-25 weekend at the North American box office. In comparison, James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash, which has held the No. 1 position for five weekends, is expected to collect around $8 million to $10 million at the domestic box office over the same period.
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Based on these projections, Mercy appears on track to edge past Fire and Ash domestically this weekend. However, there’s a major caveat: the sci-fi thriller has recently landed an underwhelming 19% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes, which could impact walk-in audiences and potentially soften its $10-13 million opening projections.
That said, box office history has repeatedly shown that a low critics’ score doesn’t always translate into poor audience reception and turnout, and several films with average RT critics’ ratings have still managed to click with viewers. The final verdict, therefore, will become clearer once the weekend numbers are in.
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Box Office Summary So Far (via Box Office Mojo)
- North America: $369.7 million
- International: $959.9 million
- Worldwide: $1.33 billion
Mercy: Cast, Plot & Storyline
Directed by Timur Bekmambetov, the sci-fi thriller is set in the near future and follows a detective (played by Chris Pratt), who is accused of killing his wife. He is forced to stand trial before an AI judge (played by Rebecca Ferguson). With only 90 minutes to prove his innocence, he must challenge the machine he once championed before it delivers a final verdict.
Mercy – Official Trailer
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