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James Cameron’s epic sci-fi threequel Avatar: Fire and Ash is now in its second week in theaters and has already grossed an impressive $1.088 billion at the worldwide box office (as per Box Office Mojo). With this latest haul, the Avatar franchise’s three films have collectively earned approximately $6.35 billion globally – an unprecedented feat no other film trilogy has achieved to date. On the critical front, Fire and Ash currently holds a 66% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes, notably lower than the first two Avatar films, which scored 81% and 76%, respectively.
As fans await official confirmation on the future of the hugely ambitious sci-fi saga, speculation continues to build around whether Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 will ultimately move forward. Despite the franchise’s extraordinary box-office dominance, several scenarios could still prevent the fourth and fifth installments from being greenlit. Here’s a closer look at what might stand in the way.
1. Avatar 3 Earns Less Than Its Predecessors
With a current worldwide total of $1.088 billion, Avatar: Fire and Ash is trailing the original Avatar ($2.924 billion) by roughly $1.836 billion and Avatar: The Way of Water ($2.343 billion) by about $1.255 billion. Earlier projections for Avatar: Fire and Ash had placed its final worldwide haul in the $1.5–$1.7 billion range. Even if it reaches the higher end of that estimate, the film would still fall short of the first two installments by approximately $1.224 billion and $643 million, respectively.
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A $1.7 billion global finish would still make Fire and Ash a highly profitable theatrical venture. Despite the franchise’s massive profitability, a downward trend in the franchise’s earnings may influence long-term decision-making, raising the possibility that Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 are not automatic greenlights. That said, no official decisions have been announced yet, and for now, the future of Pandora remains very much open.
2. James Cameron Might Not Direct Avatar 4 & 5
As of now, there has been no official confirmation that James Cameron will step away from directing the next two Avatar films. However, past reports have pointed to the filmmaker’s strong interest in adapting “The Last Train from Hiroshima” by Charles R. Pellegrino for the big screen – a project centered on survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. If this historical drama moves forward under James Cameron’s direction, it would mark his first non-Avatar directorial effort since Titanic (1997). Such a shift in focus could impact the Avatar franchise’s roadmap.
If James Cameron chooses not to direct Avatar 4 and Avatar 5, the studio may rethink moving ahead with the later installments altogether. His absence behind the camera could influence whether the next chapters are ultimately greenlit. For now, however, the final decision remains uncertain.
3. Long-term Cast Availability
Another factor that could influence the future of Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 is the long-term availability of the cast. The Avatar films take several years to complete, and the long gaps between films can make it more challenging to bring back the same actors every time. With major roles played by Sam Worthington and Zoe Saldaña, managing schedules for such massive productions can become more difficult as actors take on other films, series, and personal commitments. If all this proves too complicated over time, the studio may reconsider its plans for future sequels. That said, it’s also possible that James Cameron and his team have already planned for these challenges.
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Official Trailer
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