The D-Day of 2018 is nearing as the industry is set to witness what is touted to be the biggest Bollywood film of this decade, Thugs of Hindostan starring Aamir Khan, Amitabh Bachchan, Katrina Kaif and Fatima Sana Shaikh in lead. The theatrical trailer of the much-anticipated film, though met with a mixed response, created a certain amount of excitement among the cine-goers, however one has to accept the fact that the music has been a total let down.
Despite Katrina Kaif’s presence, the two songs have failed to take the buzz surrounding the film to the next level. The audio composed by Ajay Atul has not lived onto the expectations, thereby acting as a barrier to help the film hit the ball out of park as far as the pre-release hype is concerned. None the less, Aamir Khan’s presence in a film that releases on the Post-Diwali Day should ensure a record-breaking start at the ticket window. The movie is releasing on nearly 5100 screens in India (4600 + 500) and will have approximately 23,000 shows across the country. The movie is expected to maintain a solid occupancy of 70 to 75% through-out the day which should ensure a start in the range of Rs 47 to 50 crore. The film has the potential to even touch the Rs 52 crore mark if the response to trailer and music was unanimously positive, however given the mixed response to the trailer as well as music, we don’t really think it that would happen.
It is Aamir Khan’s presence that would get the audience on board in the metros, whereas it is the collaboration of Aamir Khan with Amitabh Bachchan in an out and out action film that will get the audience on board at the B and C centres of India. Basically, a superstar film on national holiday is something that can never really go wrong and more often than not ensures a record-breaking start.
After the historic opening, the collections would drop over the next 3 days i.e. Friday, Saturday, Sunday and in all possibilities, the opening day collections would remain the biggest, as the trend as been followed over the last few years. If the film trends like 2015 Diwali Release, Prem Ratan Dhan Payo, the extended opening weekend would be in the range of Rs 150 to 155 crore. Prem Ratan Dhan Payo opened around the Rs 40 crore mark, followed by a 25% drop on its second day thereby collecting Rs 31 crore. A similar drop would mean second day collections in the range of Rs 35 to 37 crore and extended weekend in the range of Rs 150 to 155 crore. If the word of mouth is outright positive, unlike PRDP which commanded a mixed word of mouth, we wouldn’t even rule out the possibility of the film breaching past the Rs 160 crore mark in its four-day extended weekend, thereby creating some unheard records. But well, all depends on how the audience receive this Aamir Khan film. A section of trade is speaking about the lack of pre-release buzz around the film and believe that though an Aamir Khan film on biggest day of the year should ensure a record-breaking start, the film might face a steep drop on the second and third day, but this is something that we shall know only once it releases on 8th November 2018. And even if a section of trade believes that the film is low on buzz due to not so favourable response to the music, a steep drop would happen only and only if the audience reports are not positive. If the content strikes the chord, sky will be the limit for this epic period saga. As of now, keeping an optimistic mind, we would go ahead with a HISTORIC opening in the range of Rs 47 to 50 crore. To sum it up, the word of mouth will tell us if Thugs of Hindostan scales new heights in the long run, however, no-one can doubt on the extended opening weekend collections of this magnum opus for obvious reasons!
Hype Meter: 4 on 5
Box-Office Prediction: Rs 47 to 50 crore