Today Yash Raj Films dropped the poster of studio’s Diwali tentpole, Thugs of Hindostan, inter-alia announcing that the film will see the light of day on the next day of “night of lights”, i.e. November 8th, 2018. That’s roughly 51 days from today, so with the 50 days marketing window of film starting from tomorrow, now is as good a time as any to discuss the film’s box office opening.
Before we get into this, let me simply put a speculation alert, because we are going to deal with lots of “if”s. This is not a prediction but just speculations on what is possible.
Post Diwali day is considered the most lucrative day for business. Since 2010, 6 times in 8 years, record for highest single day was renewed on the day after Diwali. The ratio gets better when only Khan releases are considered, with a new single day record on all 4 instances (2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015). The conventional wisdom says that newer single day record will be created this Diwali, but that is not what we are going to discuss.
The question is how big opening day of TOH will be? For starters, the single day record currently lies with Sanju at 46.71 crores Nett. If Gross numbers are considered, mettle remains with Baahubali: The Conclusion (Hindi) at a mighty 65 crores.
Theoretically speaking, TOH will play at over 4500 screens, with over 20,500 shows. If TOH fill every single seat at disposal, the capacity will be an estimated 75 crores plus Nett. Practically this is impossible with sheer size of release, there is always uncapped capacity. So, what TOH can do is renew record in every circuit. Currently Baahubali: The Conclusion hold single day record in all but southern circuits where it has a limited release. The combined total of highest single day in all circuits, notwithstanding inflation, is 51.82 crores or 71.80 crores Gross, breakup of same given below.
Mumbai: 17.45 crore
Delhi/UP: 8.55 crore
East Punjab: 5.2 crore
Rajasthan: 2.68 crore
CP Berar: 3.23 crore
CI: 2.18 crore
West Bengal: 2.55 crore
Bihar: 1.19 crore
Assam: 0.59 crore
Odisha: 1 crore
AP/Nizam: 2.95 crore (Sultan)
Mysore: 3 crore (Sanju)
Tamil Nadu/Kerala: 1.25 crore (Chennai Express)
Total: 51.82 crore
All these circuit records were created before imposition of GST and will be a year and half or older, at time of TOH release. This calls for inflation and taxation adjustment, which gives a baahubalian Rs. 62 crores approx single day. Now matching Baahubali: The Conclusion is perhaps too much to ask for but film could compete with the previous two Khan Diwali releases, Happy New Year and Prem Ratan Dhan Payo, inflation and taxation adjusted opening day for two is about 52 crores.
Disclaimer: This is an user article. The above information is strictly of user’s knowledge and analysis.