It is exactly a week to go for the release of Satyameva Jayate and the trade, especially at the mass centres are extremely confident taking the film. A few months back, the clash between Gold and Satyameva Jayate would have seemed like a single sided battle, but the promotional material that the makers of the John Abraham film unveiled helped SMJ become a hot property among the target audience. The theatrical trailer of Satyameva Jayate is packed with punch lines and larger than life action, which is lapped up by the audience at the small centres. In-fact, the theatrical trailer of the film has got an extremely positive response from the masses i.e. the target audience, however the issue lies with the multiplex audience in the four major cities.
The music of Satyameva Jayate has clicked big time with songs like Dilbaar and Paniyon Sa emerging two of the biggest hits of the year. Not just YouTube, the songs have set new record even on music streaming platforms like Saavn and Gaana. The song, Dilbaar has got 14 Million streams on Saavn whereas Paniyon Sa has got 5.9 Million streams. After a promising theatrical trailer, the music also escalated the buzz among the target audience. To put things straight, Satyameva Jayate is set to take a strong start at the mass centres i.e. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, East Punjab and Hyderabad to name a few. In-fact, the collections of Satyameva Jayate at these places would a lot higher than Gold, which releases on the same day. But the problem for the film would arise at the metros, where Gold would be the first choice for the audience. The ticket rates in the metros are a lot higher than the mass belts, which is the reason why there would be a lot of different in terms of Nett box office Collections between the two films, however footfall wise, there might not be a lot of difference, with Gold leading by approximately 20% footfalls. In reality, this isn’t a clash as such because both the films are appealing to different set of audience, and pre-release promo’s have done the trick to get the target audience on board initially.
Talking about expectation in terms of opening, Satyameva Jayate is expected to take a rock-solid start in the range of Rs 10 to 11 crore. The clash factor for the film will be negated by the national holiday on its opening day, which means that a solo release on non-holiday would have ensured a similar start. The movie will be releasing on approximately 2300 to 2500 screens in India, which is quite a reasonable release, however the issue will be with show allocation at the multiplexes in the metros, where the movie would get merely 35% of the total shows, as compared to 65% for Gold. As mentioned above, the best performing circuits for Satyameva Jayate would be Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, East Punjab, Hyderabad and Madhya Pradesh.
The opening weekend of Satyameva Jayate is expected to be anywhere between Rs 25 to 27 crore, whereas the five-day extended weekend of the film (Wednesday to Sunday) is expected to be in the range of Rs 43 to 46 crore, with an outside chance to come closer to the Rs 50 crore mark depending on how Gold performs at the Box-Office. Parmanu raked in Rs 65 crore at the Box-Office, after a below average weekend of Rs 21 crore, which means that the lifetime collections were 3.09 times the opening weekend. If Satyameva Jayate trends like Parmanu, the lifetime collections would be anywhere between Rs 78.00 crore and Rs 83.00 crore. While Parmanu trended in the scale of 3 because of positive word of mouth, this level of trending would be possible for Satyameva Jayate as it benefits because of extended opening weekend, which would boost the fourth and fifth day collections. A lifetime collection above Rs 65 crore would be a good result for this film, as the costs are not that high, and even the distribution is on commission basis. All that Satyameva Jayate needs to emerge successful is “decent” word of mouth among the target audience. While Rs 83 crore seems like the upper limit now, there is a possibility of the film wrapping up below the Rs 50 crore mark as well if the word of mouth is not encouraging. The extended weekend would help it sustain for the first 5 days, but with not so good word of mouth, the film will come down like a pack of card from Monday. But here’s hoping that both Gold and Satyameva Jayate do the trick with their respective audience base and emerge successful venture at the Box-Office.
Hype: 3.25 Stars!
Opening Day Prediction: Rs 10 to 11 crore